Potential recreation displacement by wildfire in Los Padres National Forest, California

This project was initiated to provide land managers with spatial information on the potential for recreation destinations to be closed or disrupted due to wildfire. Wildfires are a common occurrence in fire prone landscapes including much of southern California. Wildfires of any size can close national forests to the public for short durations due to safety concerns for forest visitors while the fire is active. However, larger, more destructive wildfires can lead to long-term recreation displacement by removing trail and campsite infrastructure, killing surrounding vegetation leading to safety concerns from falling trees, and increase the time to restore recreation opportunities. In this project, we create spatial data to show where the greatest risk of long-term recreation displacement due to wildfire is likely. We developed these recreation displacement likelihood datasets using two weather scenarios "dry" and "moderate", for the Los Padres National Forest, in California using data from 2016-2023. Each recreation displacement likelihood map was created using the following five spatial data inputs: canopy height, flame length probability, potential heat per unit area, burn probability, and potential fire severity. Canopy height was used as a measurement of vegetation type most likely to cause long-term disruption to recreation, that is fire-killed tall trees are more likely to disrupt recreation than shrubs or grass fuel types. Flame length probability and potential heat per unit area were used to measure fire intensity and amount of energy released from a fire. Burn probability conveys the likelihood of a fire occurring at a given location across the landscape. Potential fire severity indicates how damaging a fire would be if an ignition occurred. This data publication includes a separate geodatabase for dry and moderate weather conditions. Both of these geodatabases include 5 rasters: potential for fire to impact recreation, potential fire severity, burn probability, potential heat per unit area, and flame length probability. A geodatabase containing planned, priority and non priority trails; priority and non priority road; as well as places of interest vector data is also provided. Vector data show where highly frequented locations overlap with the above-mentioned datasets. Priority locations represent highly visited locations or locations of high importance, whereas non priority locations are visited less frequently.<br>The main goals of this project were to determine where wildfires are most likely to occur within the Los Padres National Forest. Then, if a wildfire occurs what are the potential long-term impacts of burning to places of interest that are important to recreation.<br>The recreation displacement likelihood datasets were developed using two weather scenarios "dry" and "moderate" following Scott and Burgan (2005).