North American models of habitat quality and migration potential under climate change

Modeled habitat suitability for 326 trees species across North America under 1991-2020 climate conditions and projected future conditions (2070-2100) were created using a multi-model ensemble (MME) approach that correlates individual tree species relative abundance to climate and topographic data. The associated files include relative abundance (i.e., habitat suitability), derived from tree basal area and number of stems, for the species according to USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data, modeled under current conditions, and two future scenarios. Species percent composition from Canada’s National Forest Inventory, as well as relative abundance from Mexican inventory data for a few species, were combined with data from the United States. Additionally, the colonization likelihoods (computed via a migration model that simulates historical migration using current abundance) of potential newly suitable habitats are provided to assess natural migration of species under the future scenarios. This data publication includes the following raster files for each species: 1) actual relative abundance derived from national forest inventory data from Canada, Mexico, and the United States; 2) modeled relative abundance indicating suitability under climate conditions from 1991-2020; 3-4) modeled relative abundance indicating habitat suitability under projected climate conditions for two future (2070-2100) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5); and 5-6) fifteen-class combination of potential habitat quality (HQ) and colonization likelihoods (CL) for two future (2070-2100) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). Maps associated with each of these raster files are also provided. Additionally, image files containing statistical boxplots of 1) elevation, 2) mean annual precipitation, and 3) mean annual temperature for each species for actual inventory data, and habitat suitability modeled under current (1991-2020) and two future (2070-2100) scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). The tabular summary data associated with these boxplots are also included.
Knowing where suitable habitat for a species could exists, how changes may unfold as a result of changing climatic conditions, and how likely tree species are to naturally migrate into potentially new habitats allows resource managers to plan for future conditions.
These data were originally published on 06/17/2024. It came to our attention that the raster files had a data mask inconsistently applied to the model inputs, resulting in coastal pixels having values that should not be considered. We have corrected the models and associated output files. For more details on this change, see the Process Steps section. On 08/30/2024 this data publication was updated to include the corrected files, including minor metadata updates. See Prasad et al. (2020; https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.13078) for details about migration simulations and Prasad et al. (in review) for details about model parameterization.