Ag Data Commons

File(s) stored somewhere else

Please note: Linked content is NOT stored on Ag Data Commons and we can't guarantee its availability, quality, security or accept any liability.

Estimated spring crop yields using Flex Cropping Tool

posted on 2023-11-30, 08:41 authored by David Huggins

Average estimated yields and associated CV values for current (2018) model runs. Based on work done by Harsimran Kaur et al in 2017. The following is from her thesis: Agro-ecological classes (AECs) of dryland cropping systems in the inland Pacific Northwest have been predicted to become more dynamic with greater use of annual fallow under projected climate change. At the same time, initiatives are being taken by growers either to intensify or diversify their cropping systems using oilseed and grain legume crops. The main objective of this study was to use a mechanistic model (CropSyst) to provide yield and soil water forecasts at regional scales which could compare fallow versus spring crop choices (flex/opportunity crop). Model simulations were based on historic weather data (1981-2010) as well as combined with actual year weather data for simulations at pre-planting dates starting in Dec. for representative years. Yield forecasts of spring pea, canola and wheat were compared to yield simulations using only weather of the representative year via linear regression analysis to assess pre-plant forecasts. Crop yield projections on pre-plant forecast date of Feb 1st had higher R2 with yield simulated using actual years weather data and lower CVs across the region as compared to forecasts based on historic weather data and other pre-season forecast dates (Dec. 1st and Jan. 1st). Therefore, Feb. 1st was considered the most reliable time to predict yield and other relevant outputs such as available water forecasts on a regional scale. Regional forecast maps of predicted spring crop yields and CVs showed ranges of 1 to 4367 kg/ha and 11 to 293% for spring canola, 72 to 2646 kg/ha and 11 to 143% for spring pea and 39 to 5330 kg/ha and 11 to 158% for spring wheat across study region for a representative year. These data combined with predicted available water after fallow and following spring crop yield as well as estimates of winter wheat yield reduction would collectively serve as information contributing to decisions related to crop intensification and diversification.

Resources in this dataset:


Agricultural Research Service


Data contact name

Huggins, David

Data contact email


USDA Agricultural Research Service

Intended use

Decision aid for planting spring crop in inland pacific northwest

Temporal Extent Start Date



  • Not specified

Geographic Coverage


ISO Topic Category

  • biota
  • environment
  • farming

Ag Data Commons Group

  • R.J. Cook Agronomy Farm
  • Long-Term Agroecosystem Research

National Agricultural Library Thesaurus terms

agroecology; arid lands; fallow; climate change; growers; oilseeds; crops; mechanistic models; soil water; spring; simulation models; meteorological data; peas; canola; regression analysis; crop yield; spring wheat

OMB Bureau Code

  • 005:18 - Agricultural Research Service

OMB Program Code

  • 005:040 - National Research

Pending citation

  • No

Public Access Level

  • Public

Preferred dataset citation

Huggins, David (2020). Estimated spring crop yields using Flex Cropping Tool. USDA Agricultural Research Service.

Usage metrics



    Ref. manager