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Data from: Predicted range expansion of the larger grain borer, Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae), under projected climate change scenarios

posted on 2024-03-12, 19:33 authored by Alison GerkenAlison Gerken, William MorrisonWilliam Morrison, Rachel Harman

The larger grain borer (Prostephanus truncatus [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]) is a wood-boring insect native to Central America but has adapted to stored maize and cassava. It was accidentally introduced to Tanzania and became a pest across central Africa. Unlike many grain pests, P. truncatus populations can establish and move within forested habitats. Consequently, novel infestations can occur without human influence. The objectives of our study were to (1) develop an updated current suitability projection for P. truncatus (2) assess its potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios, and (3) identify climate variables that best inform the model. We used WALLACE and MaxEnt to predict potential global distribution by incorporating bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Future models were projected to 2050 and 2070 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6 (low warming) and 8.5 (high warming). Distribution was most limited by high precipitation and cold temperatures. Globally, highly suitable areas (>75%) primarily occurred along coastal and equatorial regions with novel areas in northern South America, India, southeastern Asia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, totaling 7% under current conditions. Highly suitable areas at RCP 2.6 and 8.5 are estimated to increase to 12 and 15%, respectively, by 2050 and increase to 19% in 2070 under RCP 8.5. Centroids of highly suitable areas show the distribution centers move more inshore and away from the equator. Notably, the result is a range expansion, not shift. These results can be used to decrease biosecurity risks through more spatially explicit and timely surveillance programs for targeting the exclusion of this pest.


Maximizing Adoption by Demonstrating the Compatibility of Insecticide Netting with Diverse Pest Management Tactics at Food Facilities

National Institute of Food and Agriculture

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ORISE USDA-ARS Department of Energy Interagency Agreement DE-SC0014664


Data contact name

Gerken, Alison R.

Data contact email


Ag Data Commons

Intended use

The data are for common availability and modeling of larger grain borer locations. Data sources are cited in the manuscript and dataset. The R code is for species distribution modeling regarding an invasive species with occurrence data. The R code is specifically for after collecting rasters from the Wallace program.

Use limitations

These data were collected in 2022-2023 from various museum collections, literature, and GBIF resources. These are occurrence data only and not presence-absence. The R code is for completing graphing following maximum entropy modeling using the Wallace program (v2.0.4) an open-source GUI platform.

Temporal Extent Start Date


Temporal Extent End Date



  • notPlanned


  • Not specified

ISO Topic Category

  • biota
  • environment
  • climatologyMeteorologyAtmosphere

National Agricultural Library Thesaurus terms

Prostephanus truncatus; climate change; boring insects; Central America; stored grain; cassava; Tanzania; Central Africa; forest habitats; humans; climatic factors; models; geographical distribution; bioclimatic indexes; cold; temperature; South America; India; Indonesia; Philippines; biosecurity; risk; monitoring; data collection; computer software; invasive species; museums

OMB Bureau Code

  • 005:18 - Agricultural Research Service

OMB Program Code

  • 005:040 - National Research

ARS National Program Number

  • 304

ARIS Log Number


Pending citation

  • Yes

Public Access Level

  • Public