County-level land-use projections for the conterminous United States, 2020-2070, used in the 2020 RPA Assessment

Gross land-use change is projected from 2020-2070 at the county level for the conterminous United States (CONUS) based on an empirical econometric model of observed land-use transitions over the 2001-2012 time period. Land-use transition probability is modeled as a function of starting use, land quality, climate, population, and income. Modeled use categories include urban developed, forest, crop, pasture, and range land. Future projections of land-use are made under alternative scenarios of climate and socio-economic conditions as defined in the 2020 USDA Forest Service, Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment. Data are provided for each decade as well as 2012-2020 (calibration period). Net change in land-use in each category can be calculated directly from the gross change tables found in this data publication.
County-level land use change projections were developed in support of the USDA Forest Service, Resources Planning Act (RPA) 2020 Assessment.
For more information about these data, see Mihiar and Lewis (2023). These data were published 06/21/2023. Minor metadata updates were made on 07/06/2023 and 09/12/2023.